Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial - Power Rankings

The final stop of the four-tournament run in Texas takes place at Colonial CC in this week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational, with Zach Johnson the defending champion. ZJ’s won two of the last three editions of this tournament, and finished inside the top 10 in the last four. So what does that mean for this week?

In the statistical category, I took a peek at GIR, SGP and proximity. Take it for what it’s worth. As always, stats are the least important (in my mind) in terms of the stats/form/history equation.

This week's Dandy Dozen:

1. Zach Johnson – I don’t know how you wouldn't start a list here. He’s the chalk. His T19 at THE PLAYERS in his last start was his best finish since a T18 at Kapalua. I’m not sure if that’s an indictment of his season or a sign that he’s rounding into form. I probably wouldn't trust him with a one-and-done (OAD), but he’s a must in the Yahoo! format and a prudent play in several others.
2. Charl Schwartzel – He took a few knocks on the chin from the CBS broadcast team for his putting down the stretch at the Byron Nelson, but he only missed one putt inside 10 feet all day. He’s a rookie in this event, but enters off of his best finish of the year and ranks inside the top 30 in proximity and SGP and is 35^th in GIR. Good formula at Colonial.
3. Chris Kirk – He’s on a short list for a OAD, improving from T74, to T16 to T5 over his last three trips to Colonial. He’s been a rock all season, not missing a cut since January. I’m not overly concerned by his T50 at Quail Hollow and T55 at THE PLAYERS. That can be explained numerous ways. That he ranks 19^th in proximity and seventh in SGP only adds fuel to my Kirk man crush this week.
4. Kevin Streelman – It’s long overdue that he occupies a high spot on this list. Though he’s missed half of his four cuts here, he does have a T10 as recently as 2011 and ranks inside the top 25 in GIR, SGP and proximity. His form is as good as anyone’s in the world. Like those above him, I wouldn't talk you out of him in any format.
5. Harris English – This is the type of course you would think he would do well on, and he came through with a T5 in his only start here last year. He had a T17 at the Byron Nelson that included a 4-over final round in the wind. Might want to check the forecast for strong gusts later in theweek, but if that doesn't look to be a factor he’s a good play. I absolutely could see him as the next non-winner to break through this week.
6. Jim Furyk – What do we do with Jimmy? History is 13/17 with seven top 10s, two runner-ups and a fourth-place finish last year. He’s second on TOUR in proximity, but not all that efficient in putting (105) or GIR (70). I’m not totally convinced that history is a big deal with the veteran, but his last top 25 was a T25 at the Masters. Depending on your situation, there are other riskier picks with some nice upside.
7. Bo Van Pelt – BVP’s a perfect 9/9 here, with sixth top 25s, three top 10s and a third in 2011. He sprinkled in a T6 at Quail Hollow in the midst of some otherwise average play. This could go a lot of ways.
8. Ben Crane – His form is frustrating, meaning that it isn't trendy. Here’s a look at his last seven starts beginning in Tampa Bay (MC, T65, T4, T48, MC, T8, T57). All it tells us is that it “can” click for him. He’s 6/8 here with three top fives, and that doesn't even include a T10 last year. This pick’s loaded with risk, but you can see the rewards are clearly possible as well.
9. Rickie Fowler – If I had any faith in his form, he’d be up there in the Kirk/Streelman/English range, but he doesn't have a top 30 on the resume since March. Reading that, I’m not even sure I should have him this high, but here’s why I do. T38, T16, T5 in his last three starts here.
10. Jason Dufner – He’s not the same player he was in 2012. The putting isn't there, the accuracy with the irons aren't there and he’s just having a return to normalcy after an out-of-this-world year in 2012. Other than his runner-up here last year in the height of the biggest peak of his golfing life, he’s missed two cuts and tied for 59^th. I suppose he could recapture the magic but, like Fowler, don’t go all in.
11. Tim Clark – This is a perfect Tim Clark layout when his putter is cooperating. Length doesn't matter, and accuracy both off the tee and to the green do. He’s 7/8 with B2B runner-ups in ’08 and ’09 and six top 25s on the resume. You want to jump him up to around where BVP is? Ok by me.
12. David Toms – Arguably one of the favorites here last year, but missed the cut as the defending champ. He’s got the bases covered in his 14 trips, with only two missed cuts and a second, third and fourth on the resume to join the win. Maybe he rounds it out with a fifth this year? If he does, it would mark a pretty dramatic spike in form that’s seen him pick up just one top 25 all season (T13 Masters).

Next 5: Charlie Wi, Henrik Stenson, Jeff Overton, Matt Kuchar, John Huh

There are several readers that email me with some frequency about some deeper gaming formats, and another one joined the list last week suggesting I take a look at something past the chalk. I’m game, so I've come up with something new. I’m calling it “Feeling Risky?” It's for those of you that want a calculated flier that is off the beaten path. To be on this list, it likely means a player clicks on one or two key categories but has a couple of deficiencies that make him a major risk/reward.

I’ll keep it in the three to five range every week, depending on who makes sense. Here’s the debut.

Feeling Risky?

• Tommy Gainey – Finished third here last year and led the field in SGP and total distance of putts made. This year’s been a relative disaster after a career year in 2012, making 6/17 cuts and missing his last two. The book on Gainey has always been that the couple of weeks a year he’s hot with the putter, he can be dangerous. Maybe this is one of those weeks?
• David Hearn – He’s trended from T44 to T13 year-over-year at Colonial, and is a solid 27^th in SGP. He’s made his last four cuts, including a T21 at New Orleans earlier in the Spring.
• Richard H. Lee – If you look at his trend as a whole since the beginning of his rookie year of 2012, it’s been a very slow and steady build. He’s currently 49^th in GIR, 65^th in proximity and 23^rd in SGP. One week it’s all going to click, but he’ll need to snap a bad trend emerged following a T5 at the Heritage.

We’ll be back tomorrow to look at some games.

Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial - Preview

Following a week at the HP Byron Nelson Championship, the PGA TOUR will make the short trip to Colonial for the Crown Plaza Invitational. The par-70 layout of 7,204 yards frequently rewards accuracy over length, with putting another factor.


You can easily look to see that Zach Johnson held off the hottest man on TOUR at this time last season - Jason Dufner - to win the event by a stroke. What you may not remember is that Johnson suffered a two-stroke penalty on the final hole when he forgot to replace his mark on the green after moving it out of Dufner's line.

When looking at the stats, here is an idea where ZJ and Dufner ranked in a few key areas.

• ZJ got it done with the flat stick, ranking third in strokes gained and second in total distance of putts made. He did not rank inside the top 20 in any of the major ball-striking categories.
• Dufner was the opposite, ranking third in GIR and first in proximity to the hole. He was also solidly in 10th in both strokes gained-putting and total distance of putts made.
• Also of note, both of these guys were in the midst of huge seasons. Form mattered.

Either way, this further illustrates that length doesn't matter nearly as much as accuracy and putting. 

Here's a look at each champion and runner up since 2000 with their scores (280=even)

• 2000 - Phil Mickelson (268) and Stewart Cink / Davis Love III (270)
• 2001 - Sergio Garcia ( 267) and Brian Gay / Mickelson (269)
• 2002 - Nick Price (267) and Kenny Perry / David Toms (272)
• 2003 - Kenny Perry (261) and Justin Leonard (267)
• 2004 - Steve Flesch (269) and Chad Campbell (270)
• 2005 - Kenny Perry (261) and Billy Mayfair (268)
• 2006 - Tim Herron (268) winner in playoff over Richard Johnson
• 2007 - Rory Sabbatini (266) winner in playoff over Jim Furyk and Bernhard Langer
• 2008 - Mickelson (266) and Tim Clark / Rod Pampling (267)
• 2009 - Steve Stricker (263) in playoff over Steve Marino and Tim Clark
• 2010 - Zach Johnson (259) and Brian Davis (262)
• 2011 - Toms (265) and Charlie Wi (266)
• 2012 - Zach Johnson (268) and Jason Dufner (269)

As you can see, all of these winners are multiple winners, and you see plenty of Ryder Cup / Presidents Cup / major champions in the winner's circle.

When diving into your research, consider the form of top-tier players with a strength towards accuracy and putting.

We'll be back tomorrow to dive into the power rankings. Until then, happy research!

HP Byron Nelson Championship - Round 3

Keegan Bradley continues to lead the HP Byron Nelson Championship with 18 holes to play, but the margin has shrunk to one over Sang-Moon Bae. What's more, it looks like the final round will include heavy wind in the 30 MPH + range.

Here are a few thoughts from Saturday leading into Sunday:

• Our pre-tourney favorite and one-and-done pick Jason Day finally showed up with a 4-under to make a big move inside the top 20. Sunday's weather could mean a myriad of things for Day. He could shoot another 3 or 4-under and steal a top five or could shoot a 74 and finish outside the top 50. Either way, I'm feeling much better about him than I did 20 holes ago when it wasn't certain he would even see the weekend.
• There are all sorts of dynamics at the top of the leaderboard. My gut (which is dangerous) is that Bradley won't close the deal tomorrow, but I'm not sure I trust Bae or Gillis given the weather. Guys that intrigue me tomorrow include Harris English and Charl Schwartzel (T5), and D.A. Points (T10). It's not impossible that someone five back could shoot 2-under tomorrow and win with the weather. 
• Yahoo! lineup will be heavily Aussie with Day and Marc Leishman (a noted wind player) joining Jason Dufner and Keegan Bradley. 

Could be an interesting final round.....

HP Byron Nelson Championship - Round 2

First, my apologies for skipping the post yesterday. I've been traveling on business and battled through a series of delays and a final cancellation with a flight that was a nightmare. It concluded with me waking up at 3:30 am this morning and catching a series of flights to get home. Excuses, excuses.....

On a golf note, it appears Keegan Bradley is well positioned to try and pick up his second title at the HP Byron Nelson. I was happy to have both he and Schwartzel in the starting lineup on Thursday and hope you jumped on board with me.

My third-round lineup will be Charles Howell III, Keegan Bradley, Marc Leishman and Charl Schwartzel. While I haven't seen it announced, I would has to assume split-tee threesomes on Saturday, so if there is an "early" advantage it will be towards those in the middle of the pack versus those at the bottom.

Please note that there will be a 54-hole cut tomorrow.

I hope all of you have gotten more sleep over the past 36 hours than I!!!

HP Byron Nelson Championship - One-and-done

The HP Byron Nelson Championship is inching close, and it's time to put a bow on our games for the week.

I went all-in with Luke Donald at THE PLAYERS last week, and it worked out to the tune of a T19. I'm replicating that strategy and pushing all my chips in with Jason Day in the one-and-done and two-and-done this week. The only other guy that garnered my serious consideration was another Aussie, Marc Leishman.

One final note, I'm moving to all AM tee times in Yahoo! on Thursday. That means the starters are Jason Dufner, Matt Kuchar, Keegan Bradley and Charl Schwartzel.

Best of luck this week!

HP Byron Nelson Championship - Fantasy

With the HP Byron Nelson Championship creeping closer, let's take a look at our regular list of game formats.

Yahoo!:

Keeping Tiger Woods on our bench at TPC Sawgrass last week proved to be the right play, and subbing him in for Sergio Garcia on Saturday was also well timed. Current ranking moved up to 5,411 (95 percentile) with 3,008 points.

As for this week....

• A-List -  Jason Dufner starting and Charles Howell III on the bench.
• B-List - Marc Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen starting with Matt Kuchar and Keegan Bradley on the bench
• C-List - Jason Day starting with Charl Schwartzel on the bench.

Golf Channel:

Slim pickings in the Golf Channel game this week. As always, check out my picks and standings in the Rotoworld weekly article by Mike Glasscott. 

• Group 1 - Jason Day
• Group 2 - Marc Leishman
• Group 3 - Jordan Spieth
• Group 4 - D.J. Trahan

PGA TOUR game:

Current YTD standings:

1. O'Sullivan's Tribe - 5613
2. Boots With The Fur - 4857
3. Subliminal Magic - 4707
4. Pure Spin - 4629
5. Woltz - 4553

Weekly standings:

1. KyRoadz - 957
2. O'Sullivan's Tribe - 808
3. Who's the Caddy - 736
4. PelicansRule - 703
5. Tigers Embedded Ball - 698

Best of luck this week!

We'll be back with the one-and-done tomorrow.

HP Byron Nelson Championship - Power Rankings

With the conclusion of THE PLAYERS Championship, we move from one of the deepest fields of the year to one of the weakest leading up to the U.S. Open. While there is no Tiger or Phil or Rory this week, we still have a handful of solid options for which to game with this week.

Let’s dive right in:

1. Jason Day – The Aussie won here in his first trip back in 2010, then was fifth in 2011 and T9 last year despite shooting 2-over in the final round. He enters off a T19 at THE PLAYERS, and has been solid all year. His mix of form and history make him the chalk this week.
2. Marc Leishman – The Aussie’s been on a roll of late, notching top 10s at the Masters, the RBC Heritage and THE PLAYERS. He finished tied for third in this event last year, and in a total of four starts he has three top 12s and a missed cut. The only problem with him this week is that he’s almost too obvious.
3. Jason Dufner – We’re in a similar spot with Dufner this week to where we were with him at the Zurich Classic when he defended a few weeks ago.  He tied for eighth in 2011 before his win in 2012. He’s still looking for his first top 10 of the year.
4. Matt Kuchar – Kuch has never missed a cut here, with his best two starts his last two. He was T6 in 2011 and T15 last year. He hasn’t done anything all that inspiring since the Masters, but may feel freed up to play some good golf now that his PLAYERS defense is behind him.
5. Keegan Bradley – Bradley returns to the site of his first PGA TOUR win in 2011 after a T24 last year. A trend developing this year is players who performed well in specific tournaments in 2011, but took a step back in 2012, are making noise again in 2013. He enters this week off of back-to-back missed cuts, but his last top 10 was a T10 at the Shell Houston Open which is also obviously in the Lone Star State.
6. Louis Oostuizen – He had a very nice weekend at TPC Sawgrass after making the cut on the number, eventually finishing in a tie for 19^th. He’s due for a big week. *Shout out to my man Mike Glasscott for the correction that Louis has played here once before but did not fare well, missing the cut last year.
7. Ryan Palmer – Had a terrible history here until the last two years where he went runner-up in 2011 and T9 in 2012. Comes home to Texas after a T5 at THE PLAYERS, but we must make sure he doesn’t pull out this week after the well-publicized loss of his friend last week.
8. Jordan Spieth – This is where we first heard the name “Jordan Spieth” back in 2010 when the local high schooler tied for 16^th, then returned a year later to tie for 32^nd. He’s made a little less noise of late, but this is the perfect place for him to pick up a top 10.
9. Charl Schwartzel – Finally broke his streak of top 25s last week at THE PLAYERS in what has been a slow downward fall in finishes since the beginning of 2013. Other than that, everything we said about Oosthuizen applies. Given the lack of strength of the overall field and the class the South African displays, he can’t be counted out.
10. Jimmy Walker – While he’s made five cuts in seven tries here, Walker has just one top 25. This is the classic example of form meets history. All signs point to his best finish in this event, but there’s enough scar tissue hanging around TPC Four Seasons Resort to keep him down in this range.
11. Ben Crane – After poor West Coast and Florida Swings, a T4 at the Shell Houston Open and a T8 at THE PLAYERS have Crane back in a spot where he deserves serious consideration when the course is a fit. He’s had his share of hits and misses here, highlighted by a runner-up in 2002 and a T7 in 2010.
12. Jeff Overton – Always a little tough to pin down, Overton’s on a nice little run of late. At first glance, he’s made his last four cuts of 2013 with a T7 at the Valero Texas Open serving as his only top 25. If you cast the net a little wider, a T27 in Houston and a T26 at THE PLAYERS give him three top 30s in his last four starts headed into a venue where he tied for second in 2010 and shared eighth in 2011.

Next 5: Ken Duke, Dustin Johnson, Martin Kaymer, D.A. Points and John Rollins

We’ll be back tomorrow to dive into the games.