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Friday, December 2, 2011

Q School Day 3 Wrap Up

We are at the half way point at Q School and the low scores returned as the wind died.  The players that are in consistently good form this week are rising to the top.  The current PGA Tour Cut Line is at -7 with the leaders still having two rounds to go at the easier Nicklaus (NT) Course.  For those players that have already played two rounds at NT, they really need to be around -3 or -4 to be on track.  Those who have played the Stadium Course (SC) could afford to be a shot or two further back, but at this point in the tournament anyone not under par has a lot of ground to make up in a hurry.

Dandy Dozen Update (* Pre Tourney most likely to advance / % most likely to finish out of the top 130)
  1. Vaughn Taylor * T5 -10
  2. Dickey Pride % T19 -7
  3. Dean Wilson T19 -7
  4. Jeff Maggert * T27 -6
  5. Rich Beem T33 -5
  6. Boo Weekly T73 -2
  7. Daniel Chopra T90 -1
  8. Jason Gore T107 E
  9. Shaun Micheel T107 E
  10. David Duval* T115 +1
  11. Len Mattiace % T142 +4
  12. Carlos Franco % T151 +6
Comments:  Vaughn Taylor looks well on track to advance.  Dickey Pride and Dean Wilson have both been inside the number after all 3 rounds, but not quite as comfortably.  Maggert fell outside the top 25 for the first time this week today.  It will be critical for him to make up some ground on the NT tomorrow.  Beem and Weekly each made moves on NT today, but will have to see if they can maintain the momentum on the tougher SC tomorrow.  Duval was in good shape today until making a mess of things late and will need a big final 3 rounds at this point.

PGA Tour / Nationwide Tour Veterans
  1. Matt Jones T2 -11
  2. Tommy Biershenk* T9 -8
  3. Will McGirt* T9 -8
  4. Jarrod Lyle T9 -8
  5. Bob May T19 -7
  6. Roland Thatcher* T33 -5
  7. Colt Knost T43 -4
  8. James Nitties T56 -3
  9. Nathan Green T90 -1
  10. Paul Claxton T90 -1
Comments:  Matt Jones looks like a lock to advance at this point.  I really like how steady Tommy Biershenk has been.  He manged to shoot -2 on the SC in the wind on Thursday and shot a -2 on Wednesday in a round that included a triple bogey.  I expect a good day out of him Saturday and an eventual PGA Tour card from him.  I like McGirt right now, but would like to see him in a similar position, and not on the bubble Sunday night.  I'm not convinced he would pull it out if he were to be on the bubble.  Roland Thatcher struggled in the wind, but might catch back up now that the conditions are better.  Really at this point, only Green and Claxton are in real trouble.

Rookies / Journeymen / Mini Tour players
  1. Harris English* T7 -9
  2. Matt Davidson* T27 -6
  3. Doug Barron T73 -2
  4. Sam Saunders* T73 -2
  5. Jeff Corr T121 +2
  6. Anthony Rodriguez T121 +2
  7. Ty Tryon T134 +3
  8. Jimmy Brandt T134 +3
  9. Brian Duncan T142 +4
  10. Benoit Beisser T151 +6
Comments:  Harris English looks good at this point.  If his nerves hold up he's in good shape.  Matt Davidson needs a strong final 3 rounds, but has a shot.  Other than that the only person I see with a shot is Sam Saunders.  He's making a ton of birdies (17 tied for 4th in the tournament), but he's also got 4 double bogeys which are killing him.  If each of those were just bogeys he'd be T27.  If he can eliminate the big numbers he's got the fire power to get back in this.

Expect the PGA Tour cut line to be -10 or maybe even -11 tomorrow night.

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