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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

WGC-Cadillac Championship & Puerto Rico Open - Examining the Odds

With the WGC-Cadillac Championship and the Puerto Rican Open both being contested this week, we get to have twice the fun in looking at the odds. The lines listed below were current as of the writing of this blog and were pulled here http://www.madduxsports.com/golf-betting-lines.html.

Here is everyone that is currently 50/1 or better with a few comments on each.

WGC-Cadillac Championship:
  • 11/2 - Rory McIlroy & Tiger Woods - Talk about riding the fence. The thing about Tiger isn't his best round of the week, but his worst. I have little doubt that Tiger will shoot at least one 6-under 66 this week, give or take a shot. What I will be interested to see is what his worst round is. If his worst round at The Honda would have been a 1-under, he'd have been in a playoff. Also, while that 62 was brilliant, he had the luxury of doing it from well back in the field.  As for Rory, I'm a little curious to see how his high-profile trip to New York on Monday plays into his WGC preparations and results. It could serve as a nice decompression, or it could lessen his focus. Either way, it's few and far between when someone wins back to back, so Rory's got some history going against him.
  • 12/1 - Lee Westwood & Phil Mickelson - Pretty good odds for these two.  I'd say if this tournament was played 12 times there's a good chance each of them would knock at least one off. I thought Westwood would win last week, and he came close. Sometimes Mickelson needs a tournament after a lay-off to get back into the swing, but this wasn't a long lay-off.
  • 20/1 - Charl Schwartzel - He's been really solid lately.  No surprise he falls in here.
  • 25/1 - Luke Donald and Dustin Johnson - I like Johnson here more than Donald.  Greens in regulation are important at Doral, so that fits Donald, but his game isn't in top form. Johnson is trending well and finished second here last year. If this turns into a Woods/McIlory showdown, I'm not sure his nerves hold up, but he's solid at 25/1.
  • 28/1 - Nick Watney, Hunter Mahan and Martin Kaymer - Defending champ is getting the Rodney Dangerfield. It's unlikely he defends, but worth a close watch. It's hard not to like Mahan, but it will be even harder for him to win in back to back starts. Kaymer is always dangerous when he's playing well. The world No. 4 is flying quietely under the radar kind of like a poor man's Westwood.
  • 33/1 - Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar, Keegan Bradley and Webb Simpson - Bradley and Garcia seem better bets to win than Kuchar or Simpson.  If we were betting on top 10's, I might go the other way.
  • 40/1 - Adam Scott & Jason Day - Both of these guys seem like better bets to win than some of the guys above them.  I'd take Scott or Day over Donald, Kuchar and Simpson for sure right now.
  • 50/1 - Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Bill Haas, Graeme McDowell and Bubba Watson - Rose and Haas seem the best of this bunch.
Here are the guys I think may be good bets at their current odds: Johnson, Mahan, Scott, Day and Rose. Anders Hansen and Peter Hanson at 100/1 and Jonathan Byrd at 125/1 also seem like deals.

Puerto Rico Open:
  • 16/1 - Jeff Overton - Not sure I like this one.
  • 20/1 - Kevin Stadler, Brendon De Jonge and Henrik Stenson - I like Stadler a lot here. DeJonge is also a birdie making machine and could easily contend. 
  • 22/1 - J.B. Holmes - This is an intriguing bet. He seems to be playing well and, at his best, is as good as anyone in the field.
  • 25/1 - Seung-yul Noh and Ryo Ishikawa - I have a hard time getting too excited about either of these.
  • 33/1 - Vaughn Taylor, Brandt Jobe, Briny Baird, Heath Slocum, Kevin Streelman, Michael Bradley and Dickey Pride - I really like this group collectively. I could see any of these but Pride winning. While I'd love to see Pride win, he just had back-to-back top 10's for the first time in his career, so the odds of him winning a tournament and posting three in a row are lottery winning type odds.
Guys I like are Stadler, Holmes, Taylor and Jobe.

We'll have final thoughts tomorrow!

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