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Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Sony Open - Odds / Final Thoughts

Creeping up on the start of the PGA TOUR season's first full-field event, it's time to look for some value at the Sony Open. Along with that, I'll also hit on my one-and-done and two-and-done picks.

My one-and-done this week is Charles Howell III. He's never missed a cut in 11 tries and owns two runner-ups and a third.

For a two-and-done, I'm taking Tim Clark. His history here is just three events, but all went for top 25s and he was a runner-up in 2011.

I wanted to find a place for Brendon de Jonge, but CH3 and Clark were just slightly better options. Also, I'm not burning Dustin Johnson coming off a win at the HTOC because it's so rare that a guy goes back-to-back, especially given the short turn around. There will be safer spots for the bomber down the road.

As for the odds, here are some values I see on the Ladbrokes site:
  • Carl Pettersson at 20/1 jumps out as a good value. The 2012 RBC Heritage champ has been all-or-nothing in this event, making four of eight cuts but has top 25s in all four paydays including three top 10s and a T2 last year.
  • Matt Every at 50/1 also seems strong. He was the 36-hole leader and 54-hole co-leader last season before sharing sixth. When he's good, he's really good.
  • George McNeill is 100/1, but surprisingly has four top 20s in five starts at Waialae.
  • If you want a deep sleeper, how about Web.com Tour Championship winner Justin Bolli at 250/1? His game gets better the closer to the hole he gets, with scrambling and putting a strength.
Best of luck to all!

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