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Monday, June 24, 2013

AT&T National - Power Rankings

As our attention turns to the greater Washington, D.C. area for AT&T National at Congressional, the contenders in this week's power rankings have a decidedly Australian flair. Per usual, we'll take into account the usual metrics of course history, current form and relevant statistical prowess, with the total driving stat and ball-striking carrying the most weight.

I'll refer you to yesterday's preview for more information on Congressional.

Let's dive in:

  1. Jason Day - He's coming off a T2 at the U.S. Open two weeks ago and finished runner-up in the U.S. Open at Congressional to Rory McIlroy in 2011. He tied for eighth here last season and ranks 26th in total driving. Quite frankly, all lights are green.
  2. Adam Scott - If Day is (1), then Scott is (1A). Scott was third at Congressional last season and his form this year has been impeccable. He's 13th in total driving and 19th in ball striking. If his putter and short game cooperate at all, he could easily be in for another big week.
  3. Billy Horschel - He missed the cut here in 2009, but that was a different golfer. He's coming off an impressive T4 at Merion and has shown an unquenchable thirst for success in 2013. Ranks eighth in total driving and 11th in ball-striking. 
  4. Bo Van Pelt - Don't think of this so much as me pegging BVP to finish fourth in the tournament as pointing out that he has plenty of value as a safe pick. He's made his last eight cuts this year and was runner-up to Tiger Woods in this tournament a year ago. He also tied for 14th in the 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional. 
  5. Hunter Mahan - After opening with a 62 last week at the Travelers he failed to break par in the subsequent three rounds. I honestly don't know what to make of that. What I do know is that he's fifth in total driving, 15th in ball-striking and has four finishes of T12 or better on this course, including a runner-up.
  6. Graham DeLaet - While he tied for 49th here last year, one could make a similar argument to DeLaet as we did with Horchel's MC in 2009. With DeLaet, we have the number one ball-striker and number two driver on TOUR coming off an impressive third-place finish at TPC River Highlands. Congressional demands near perfection tee-to-green, so we'll see if his strengths are rewarded.
  7. Brandt Snedeker - Questions still loom about his health and form, but at 23rd in ball-striking, T5 here in '09 and a T11 in the '11 U.S. Open he garners consideration. I would not advise him as a one-and-done selection.
  8. Charley Hoffman - He's always been good to make the cut in this event, and has finishes inside the top 25 twice. Given that he spent plenty of time on television over the weekend in Connecticut and played in the final pairing on Sunday, we know that form is good. He's 55th in ball-striking and 44th in total driving with a tilt towards distance. 
  9. Kevin Chappell - Finished T3 at the 2011 U.S. Open and tends to show up on tough tracks. He ranks 15th in total driving, which could explain his inclusion on some big leaderboards.
  10. Ryan Palmer - He's finished between T15 and T22 each of the last three times he's teed it up at Congressional (including the 2011 U.S. Open). Finished fourth at the FedEx St. Jude Classic before missing the cut at Merion. Congressional is nothing like Merion. Checks out inside the top 50 in ball-striking and driving.
  11. Bill Haas - He's messed around in the 20-40 range in most of his outings at Congressional but his pedigree and skills make him too good to drop any further. Disappointed down the stretch at the Memorial and failed to make the cut at Merion, but I see the U.S. Open MC as more of a testament to a bad course fit than a lapse in form.
  12. Martin Laird - He tied for 11th here last year and is sneaking around some big leaderboards with a T5 at THE PLAYERS and a T21 at the U.S. Open. He's 17th in total driving and plenty long enough to compete at Congressional.
Next 5: Robert Garrigus, Brendon de Jonge, John Rollins, Scott Stallings and Nick Watney

Feeling Risky?
  • Matt Jones - Tied for 79th here in his only start in 2008, but at 11th in total driving and 42nd in ball-striking could be a dark horse candidate. 
  • David Lingmerth - This guy keeps showing up when you least expect it. He was T2 at THE PLAYERS and T17 at the U.S. Open.
  • Seung-yul Noh - Given his form (awful), this is completely out of left field. He finished T4 last year in this event, so he could catch lightening in a bottle this week.
We'll be back tomorrow to look at some games.Until then, best of luck!

1 comment:

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