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Tuesday, July 9, 2013

John Deere Classic - Fantasy

Before we dive into the different fantasy formats for the John Deere Classic, I want to take care of one item of business. Because there are two tournaments next week, including The Open Championship, I will begin my research for Muirfield sooner than normal. With that, I may not post in this space between now and Sunday. My expectation is that I will post heavily towards The Open Championship early next week (Sunday/Monday) and move my attention more towards the Sanderson Farms Championship in the Tuesday/Wednesday range.

As always, feel free to tweet (@RyanGolfBlogger) or email thegolfaficionado@gmail.com with questions on this week's tournament and the two coming up next week. I will update my Yahoo! lineup on Twitter for the John Deere Classic.

Weather this week is calling for ZERO percent chance of rain all week. That's almost impossible to believe on the PGA TOUR the way this season has gone. Wind looks light as well, meaning scoring could be really low. The only defense TPC Deere Run can hope for is firm/fast fairways and greens. My guess is that the morning waves on Thursday and Friday will each see some really low numbers (a 62 and a handful of 63s), so I'm likely going to stagger waves in the Yahoo!

Now to the games.

Yahoo!

Last week: 148 points
Season: 4200 points and 4,811 ranking (95th percentile)
Summer: 302 points, 3038 ranking

Lineup:

  • A-List - Brendon de Jonge starting with Kyle Stanley on the bench.
  • B-List - Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson starting with Louis Oosthuizen and Nick Watney on the bench.
  • C-List - Jordan Spieth starting and Matt Jones on the bench.
Golf Channel - As always, check out my man Glass' article on Rotoworld for all of our staff picks http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/gol/43642/297/quad-cities-zj?pg=3.

PGA TOUR:

Season
  1. O'Sullivan's Tribe - 7919
  2. Pure Spin - 7106
  3. Woltz - 6617
  4. Boots With The Fur - 6333
  5. KyRoadz - 6285
The Greenbrier

We have a four-way tie for first at 172 with Pure Spin and Team Tiger I, II and III
We also have a three-way tie for fifth at 165 with O'Sullivan's Tribe, Rubio2016 and Woltz.

One-and-Done:

If you got Stricker, I think you have to play him. I don't have him available as a one-and-done, but he's my two-and-done. 

Zach Johnson's a tough call. I have him available but don't love his form and I'm not especially in love with him as a defender. 

What I am convinced of, is that I want someone who can shoot a low number on Sunday. When I tell you that Brendon de Jonge is my pick, your immediate reaction may be to email and tell me that he's not a closer. Point noted, but he is 18th in final-round scoring average. They say the stats don't lie, but sometimes they can.

Here are de Jonge's splits since 2010.

2010 - T7 - 67-65-68-69 = 15-under
2011 - T7 - 66-66-63-74 = 15-under
2012 - T19 - 68-68-67-69 = 12-under

Now, I'm not a big math guy but I can see that over his last 12 rounds on the par-71 layout, he's broken par 11 times. It is concerning that the lone over-par round was 3-over in the 2011 finale. BUT, his final round scoring average in 2011 was outside the top 100 (not 18th). When you add those 12 rounds up, his average is 3.5-under (or 67.5). For giggles, if you throw out his best (63) and worst (73) rounds, the ten rounds average 67.3.

That's good enough for me.

Best of luck this week. I'll be back in this space Sunday, if not sooner.

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