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Sunday, July 6, 2014

John Deere Classic - Preview

The final PGA TOUR stop before the Open Championship is the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. This stop is also commonly referred to as the Steve Stricker Invitational, as Stricker has three wins in the last five years and is a perennial favorite. Jordan Spieth returns to defend his only PGA TOUR win. Here is a little preview to get you off and running in your research.

TPC Deere Run is a 7,268 yard par-71 layout that features three par 5s, four par 3s and 11 par 4s. As a general rule, it will take something well under par to win, with at least 20-under needed in four of the last five years. Anytime numbers go that low, putting stats and Par Breakers deserve a hard look.

Here is a look at the winners and runners-up in this event dating back to 2005:

  • 2005 - Sean O'Hair (16-under 268) over Robert Damron and Hank Kuehne (269)
  • 2006 - John Senden (265) over J.P. Hayes (266)
  • 2007 - Jonathan Byrd (266) over Tim Clark (267)
  • 2008 - Kenny Perry (268) over Brad Adamonis and Jay Williamson in a playoff.
  • 2009 - Steve Stricker (264) over Zach Johnson, Brett Quigley and Brandt Snedeker (267)
  • 2010 - Steve Stricker (258) over Paul Goydos (260)
  • 2011 - Steve Stricker (262) over Kyle Stanley (263)
  • 2012 - Zach Johnson (264) over Troy Matteson in a playoff
  • 2013 - Jordan Spieth (265) over David Hearn and Zach Johnson in a playoff
There's a little bit of everything on that list of players above, but what stands out is the quality of the winners in what is normally a pretty weak field. With the exception of Spieth, all of the other winners have won multiple times on the PGA TOUR and many of them have played on various Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup teams. The list of second-place finishers isn't nearly as impressive, which demonstrates that a dark horse can certainly make a run. 

As I break down the stats, I expect to take a hard look at SGP, Par Breakers, Par 4 Scoring average and a few other metrics. The normal blend of course history and current form will also be examined. 

We will return tomorrow with the Power Ranking. Until then, happy research!


  1. I was looking at Charles Howell III (+5000 -23 events, 20 cuts, and 6 top 10's): David Hearn (+6600, Playoff last year) Cameron Tringale (+4000, T4 at Greenbriar) and Rory Sabatini ( 22 events, 3 top 10's... payout odds of +12500)

    1. Not sure I completely understand your question, but Tringale was a late WD. I don't like Sabo's form, so I would likely lay off. I always like CH3 to make the cut just about anywhere, but I have a hard time seeing him inside the top five or 10. I could see Hearn making another run. He took some time off before the Greenbrier and knocked off the rust last week.

    2. Thanks, I just caught this blog searching around, I like the info... I was more looking at it as a gamblers perspective, not a fantasy... the players I had, I just went on by basic stats of past results of the year vs the payout... I watch golf but causally, so I appreciate the more in-depth analysis... as far as payout odds: Risk/Reward... your picks of Billy Hurley and Michael Thompson are the biggest pay outs at more than +5000... I might go w those to in addition to Senden and Kirk... like the blog, keep up the good work