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Monday, August 11, 2014

Wyndham Championship - Power Ranking

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder at the Wyndham Championship, and that is reflected in this week's Power Ranking. With few exceptions, the elite on the PGA TOUR use this as a week off between playing two majors and a WGC in a four-week span and the looming FedExCup. While recent weeks have given us layups like Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Jim Furyk, there isn't a clear number one this week.

With that in mind, here we go!
  1. Brandt Snedeker - While he is a past champion at this event, please note that it was not at Sedgefield CC, rather Forest Oaks. His inclusion is based on the fact that he's finally heated up with the putter and snared top-25 finishes in his last three starts and in six of his last seven. He is not a perfect option, as he's missed two out of his last three cuts in this event. 
  2. Tim Clark - His lack of length renders certain layouts out of reach, explaining his T50 at the WGC-Bridgestone and MC at the PGA Championship. Before that he tied for fifth at the John Deere Classic and won the RBC Canadian Open. That should be the focus. He was the runner-up to Sergio Garcia here in 2012.
  3. Hideki Matsuyama - Finished 15th here last year in his only start and has demonstrated decent form the last few weeks. He spun a 65 and a 66 last year, showing he can shoot a low score at the par-70 Sedgefield. He hasn't missed a cut since the RBC Heritage and tied for 12th at Firestone CC two weeks ago.
  4. Webb Simpson - His form has been very hard to understand this year, and his MC-T31-MC run in the last three events is problematic to say the least. His last four starts in this event have gone T8-Win-T22-T11 and he is a resident and native of North Carolina. If you are comfortable with a course horse, he's your guy. 
  5. Brooks Koepka - Starting to become a hot name of late, and he enters this week off a T15 at the PGA Championship. He will have a 2014-15 PGA TOUR card via his non-member FEC points (and earnings) and looks to duplicate what Jordan Spieth did a year ago by earning a win. Ranks 21st on TOUR in Par Breakers, 30th in Proximity and 34th in Par 4 Scoring Average. Works for me.
  6. Bill Haas - The one thing we know for certain is that the Wake Forest product will make the cut. With the exception of a WD at the RBC Heritage, he hasn't missed a weekend all year. Relative to his talent, he has under performed this year. Among the class of the field this week, it's very possible he peaks to steal a win. 
  7. David Toms - While he wasn't the first name to come to mind when sitting down to do this week's research, he quickly raised his hand and demanded attention. Ranks inside the top 30 in GIR, Scrambling, Proximity and is fifth in Par 4 Scoring Average. He has top 25s in four of his last five starts at Sedgefield and had a T26 at The Greenbrier Classic and a T13 at the John Deere Classic before his WD at the Barracuda Championship.
  8. Patrick Reed - The defending champ is hot on the heels of earning an automatic spot onto the Ryder Cup team, and now we will get a chance to learn how he handles a title defense on the PGA TOUR. Given the upcoming FEC Playoffs and the Ryder Cup on the horizon, it's fair to question if he can focus on the task at hand this week. If he can, I've ranked him too low.
  9. Nick Watney - He's trying to right the ship on what has been an abysmal 2013-14, going T12 (RBC), T8 (Barracuda) and T33 (PGA) in his last three starts. While that T8 is his only top 10 of the season and it came in an opposite-field event, it's entirely possible that he can replicate that in a light field this week. His course history here isn't great, as it is highlighted by a T31 in 2012. 
  10. John Huh - Similar to Tim Clark in that we will have to display selective amnesia in terms of recent form.Huh suffered three missed cuts before a T3 at the Barracuda before missing the cut at the PGA last week. Offers course-history buffs a T19 and a T3 in his two trips to Sedgefield CC. 
  11. Carl Pettersson - The Swede has a win and two T4s at this venue, but has missed the mark with two missed cuts and a T67 on his other three occasions. Has a T55-T35-MC in his last three TOUR starts.
  12. Brian Harman - After missing his first two cuts at Sedgefield, he tied for third last year. He is without a top 25 in his three starts since breaking through at the John Deere Classic, but it's worth noting that two of those were majors and the other was a WGC. This field more closely mirrors the strength of the JDC.
Next 5: Chad Campbell, Joe Durant, Billy Horschel, Charles Howell III and Freddie Jacobson

We will return tomorrow with a look at the one-and-done.

8 comments:

  1. Is Els off the list because you don't think he'll fare well or because he was a late entry?

    Thanks for all you do by the way, I love the blog!

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    1. Really good question. Any time there is a late entry, in some ways it taints the research. I'll never know how I would have handled him if he was in the field when I started researching. I can tell you that Matt Every was inside my top 12 before he pulled out.
      The biggest reason Els isn't in my ranking is because he doesn't have a top 10 in a non-major on the PGA TOUR since winning The Open Championship in 2012. It's like he can still peak for a major if he puts all of his effort into it, but he isn't replicating that in a regular event.

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    2. Certainly makes sense, and that last stat alone would be enough to scare me away from him in a OAD format.

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  2. Hi Ryan quick question I only have 1 start with furyk and zach Johnson. Which of the 4 tourneys (Barclays, deutsche, bmw, coca cola) would you plug those 2 players in assuming you were me?

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    1. Furyk makes the most sense at The TOUR Championship off the top of my head. Not sure about ZJ. I don't recall any being a particular sweet spot for him.

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  3. Also how do you feel about Justin hicks and molinari this week Ryan?

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    1. It could be a "me" problem, but I'm very slow to jump on the bandwagon when European Tour players play on American soil. Molinari had a nice Open Championship, but didn't follow it up well at the WGC or PGA in my opinion. Hicks seems to be a hot name this week judging by emails / tweets I've gotten. He's playing well, so it would make sense.

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  4. Just wanted to thank you again for helping me capture the title in my Pick 2 OAD that ran from the Honda to the PGA Championship for the second year in a row(35+ people both years). It pays to have a plan and not deviate even though I really wanted to at times....

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