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Tuesday, September 9, 2014

TOUR Championship - One and done

With the TOUR Championship edging closer, it's time to put the finishing touches on our final one-and-done pick. This week it's all about the situation. Are you in the money, or out? Do you need a win, or a top 10 to accomplish your goal?

The way my game plays out, I'm about $800k outside of the money. I need a win, and it would help if it would come from a player that is not one of the more popular plays this week. I have 10 (of 29) players available. They are: Billy Horschel, Morgan Hoffmann, Hunter Mahan, Chris Kirk, Patrick Reed, John Senden, Cameron Tringale, Russell Henley, Geoff Ogilvy and Gary Woodland.

If you'll remember, Hunter Mahan was my last cut at The Barclays and Billy Horschel was the final cut at the BMW last week. If I'd have gotten just one of those right.....

Maybe that means I should change my mind after the pick and go with my alternate?

Here we go.

  • I'm eliminating Billy Horschel. While Rory McIlroy can go back-to-back, Billy Ho cannot. If I needed a top 10, he's my guy.
  • I love Hoffmann's 62-63 finish last week. He's still alive.
  • Mahan has not played well since the win at The Barclays and the added pressure of a win clinching the FEC title doesn't help. I'll pass.
  • Kirk surrounded his win with very average tournaments on both sides, so I'll let him go even though I do like his putter.
  • As I said yesterday. Reed could finish first or last. This week, if I ain't first, I'm last. Reed's alive.
  • Senden has fairly poor history and his two wins are spread across the board. I'll pass.
  • Tringale is an interesting thought, but I don't know that I like him as much as Reed or Hoffmann. He just misses the first cut.
  • Henley fits the mold. He can get really hot with the putter and has been a decent closer in his short career. He makes the short list.
  • Ogilvy is playing some of his best golf in years, but I'm not feeling it. Course history doesn't suggest anything better than a low top 10.
  • I can't trust Woodland's putter enough this week.
That leaves me with a short list of Hoffmann, Reed and Henley. My first elimination is Patrick Reed. I can't make sense of his third-round 82 at TPC Boston and his opening-round 77 at Cherry Hills in his last two starts. I can't afford a round like that. 

With it coming down to Russell Henley and Morgan Hoffmann, I'm rolling with Henley. Both are aggressive players and really good putters. Both have finished inside the top three in the last two weeks. 

So what's the tiebreaker? Two things.
  1. It would be really hard to think Hoffmann could close the door on his first PGA TOUR win at the TOUR Championship with the FEC title potentially on the line.
  2. This is the bigger one. Look at Henley's history. He's a Georgia boy, born and bred. He won The Honda Classic in the state of Florida. He tied for sixth in the 2013 RBC Heritage in South Carolina. He won the Winn Dixie Jacksonville Open on the Web.com Tour in 2012 (Florida). He won the 2011 Stadion Classic at UGA in Athens, GA. BERMUDA ANYONE?!?!?! 
Henley is at home in the Southeast, and he's the pick. Let's go!!!


  1. I like your moves. Here's my dilemma: 118 person OAD. Currently in 2nd, and so far clear of 3rd I can't be passed. However, I'm $317K behind 1st. Gotta have a top 3 and possibly some help from him. I'm obviously all in.

    I have Horschel, Simpson, Reed, Kaymer, Henley, Hoffman and a few others who aren't relevant. I HAVE to pick someone that the leader doesn't, which leaves me with Henley, Horschel, Kaymer.

    I'm thinking he's going to jump all over Webb.

    Gotta have a top 3. Kaymer, Horschel, or Henley?

    I'm leaning Horschel, but you almost have me convinced on Henley.

    1. In a bubble, it would be tough to ignore Simpson. Great course history and, while he's been inconsistent, he's still played well on some of his favorite courses. Since you think your competition will go in that direction, then I like Horschel and Henley. If Horschel can keep the putter hot, he could very easily crack the top three. That's a really tough call. It doesn't sound like you have anything to lose, which is good. Trust your gut.

  2. Yeah, not having anything to lose is nice, I'm already solidly in the top 2 and can't drop. It's like you the last couple of weeks with Mahan and Horschel: whichever one I pick the other will inevitably finish higher.

  3. Who you got between Scott and Spieth? Need a top 3, and a win will really cash me in. Scott has been taken by everyone ahead of me while Spieth has been taken by 21 of the 24 ahead of me. Tempting to go with consistency in Scott byt Spieth's familiarity with this course may play in his favor. Honestly I might as well flip a coin.