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Monday, November 10, 2014

OHL Classic at Mayakoba - Power Ranking

The OHL Classic at Mayakoba represents the seventh tournament of the 2014-15 PGA TOUR season, and we have crunched the numbers to come up with this week’s power ranking. Please feel free to refer to yesterday’s preview for information on past winners and further details on El Camaleon.

Here’s how they shake out.
  1. Robert Streb – His win at The McGladrey Classic was surrounded by top-10 finishes, including an eighth-place finish in Mississippi last week. While he’s never played in this event, his stats and form offer an enticing combination. Don’t forget, Harris English won here last year in his first visit as did John Huh the year before.
  2. Jason Bohn – He’s a guy that should get plenty of attention coming off a T2 at the Sanderson Farms Championship last week and a tie for third in this event last year. The biggest question will likely come down to his ability to play as a favorite as opposed to lurking in the shadows of anonymity as he does most weeks.
  3. Rory Sabbatini – A name that hasn't gotten much mention over the last few months, Sabo tied for eighth at the CIMB Classic two weeks ago and has two top-five finishes in three trips to El Camaleon. While Bohn will likely steal the headlines, Sabbatini’s trends are almost just as good. He’s also a healthy seventh in par-4 scoring average.
  4. Spencer Levin – Appears to have tailored his schedule to include the tournaments where he has the best chance of making the biggest impact. He is a playoff loser at this venue (2011) and has T21 and a T10 in his first two starts of the new season. He’s sixth in driving accuracy and third in par-4 scoring average, which should play well anywhere.
  5. Charles Howell III – We mentioned yesterday that this leaderboard shares similarities to that of the Sony Open, and CH3 regularly nabs top fives in that event. He isn’t bad here either, tying for sixth last year to go with three other top 20s in five total trips. He tied for 14th in Mississippi last week.
  6. William McGirt – There is some precedent for this ranking. He tied for fifth in Mississippi in 2012 only to finish runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open a week later. While the schedule has shifted, it’s a nice vibe none the less. His T7 last week came in the heart of contention, as he was in the final threesome on Sunday afternoon.
  7. Fabian Gomez – Has a strong trend brewing, tying for eighth and 14th at The McGladrey Classic and Sanderson Farms Championship respectively. Only knock is a T50 here in 2011, but that was a long time ago. Stats are solid, as his only two finishes of the season would suggest.
  8. Brian Stuard – Course history buffs would know without looking that he tied for second here in 2010 and returned to finish alone in second last season. He was off to a terrible start in 2014-15 before a well-timed T13 at the CIMB Classic.
  9. Chris Stroud – Similar to Stroud, his course history is unbelievable. In his last three starts at El Camaleon, he finished fourth, T5 and T3. The problem is, his T39 at the CIMB Classic is his best return of the young season. Penciling him in would be putting complete trust in course history.
  10. John Huh – Tied for 23rd in his title defense last year and enters off a T25 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Known for his accuracy off the tee, this season he’s tended to get stronger as he closes in on the hole. Scrambling and SGP numbers are a go, but some of the other key metrics are questionable. 
  11. Harris English – The defending champ hasn’t played all that well the last few months, with his T16 at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open representing his only payday in three attempts. Currently 128th in par breakers.
  12. Ben Martin – Worth of the last slot, but it should be noted that he’s on a slight fade since winning in Vegas. Backed that title up with a T17 at McGladrey and faded to a T29 in Mississippi. He tied for 31st in this event last year, and it should be noted that all four of his rounds were under par.

Next 5 (alphabetical): Robert Allenby, David Hearn, Will MacKenzie, Kevin Stadler and Justin Thomas

I will throw out the caveat that Stadler W/D from the WGC-HSBC Champions last week, so keep a close eye out for any news involving him over the next few days before investing.

Tomorrow will feature the one-and-done pick, and there are a number of solid options and angles. Until then, best of luck to all!

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