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Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Shell Houston Open - One-and-done

With the Shell Houston Open inching closer, it's time to put a bow on our selections and declare a one-and-done pick.

As I mentioned yesterday, the short list came down to J.B. Holmes, Phil Mickelson and Shawn Stefani.

Mickelson is the name that has to be dealt with in this threesome, and then the other two. Lefty has gone T17, T31 and T30 in his last three starts. That has him on a steady, but not spectacular, trend leading into the Masters. Over the last few days, picking Mickelson in weekly games has been tough. He tends to almost do the opposite of what is expected and conventional.

If you remove Lefty's name, he's a guy that has great course history and average form. Adding his name back to the equation, he's a guy that tends to peak either for a major, or the week before.

Moving on to Holmes, I don't love that he missed the cut at Bay Hill in his last start. His runner-up at Doral could be compartmentalized because that course offered a huge advantage to bombers. Still, he has very good course history and very good overall form.

Stefani offers current form similar to Mickelson, and pedigree and course history a little below. Taking out the names and faces, he doesn't stack up to the other two (thus, he's also lower in the power ranking).

All things considered, this is about as close to a perfect week as we are going to get for pulling the trigger with Mickelson, and that's the move I'm making. If he came in too hot, we'd be primed for a let down. Too cold and we'd be afraid that he had issues too severe to overcome in one week.

Let's go Phil!

6 comments:

  1. Phil is my favorite golfer, but I'm still not sold. Following your advice so far, all season, I am sitting pretty in my fantasy league. I hesitate not to listen. However, what are your thoughts on Steele? I feel he is definitely primed for a win or runner up.

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    1. Like Steele's form, but his course history is certainly below average here. Phil is absolutely a risk. Steele more likely to make the cut, Phil more likely to top 10.

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    2. He comes out of the gates swinging this morning. I apologize, last night I had a change of heart and decided to follow your advice. You haven't disappointed all season. Thanks for the great advice.

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  2. I would take Louis Ooooooo over both of them here unless saving for another tourney.

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    1. I like Louis for St. Andrews for The Open Championship. He's been strong there in numerous events that utilize ST. Andrews. Not declaring him as my pick for there, but keeping him open for the option.

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    2. I am in OAD league and saving Rory, DJ, Scott or Stenson for British and other big events.... Like Day, Speith and Sneeeeedeker at Masters

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