There is little doubt in my mind that this is one of the hardest tournaments to peg, in part because of all the information there is to sort through. We hear a snippet about a player striping it on the range or in a practice round and tend to get excited. It's about the only tournament where we get such level of detail about a non-elite player's warm-up for an event. Processing that information and applying it correctly is tough. It can't be completely discarded, but can't be emphasized too much as well.
Here is this week's power ranking, with the pro/con of each player in the top 10 listed. Hope you enjoy and that this helps your final picks in your games this week.
- Jason Day - Pros: Two top 3s in four trips and already a winner in '15. Cons: Recent form has been a little below elite.
- Bubba Watson - Pros: Kind of obvious, isn't it? Long, two-time winner, big week at Doral, etc. Con: Almost impossible to win back-to-back at ANGC and he hasn't cracked the top 15 in his four non-winning starts.
- Henrik Stenson - Pros: Incredible run of current form. Cons: 4 top 20s, but no top 10s at Masters. Had the flu last week, but lower expectations from that could actually be a pro.
- Jordan Spieth - Pros: Current form is off the charts and course history is a T2 last year. Con: Worried about his length if this course takes on the rain it is expected to hold. 97th in Par 5 Scoring, which is a big deal at ANGC. Not many easy par 4s, which he is quite good at picking off when available.
- Jimmy Walker - Pros: Win two weeks ago, T8 last year, game sets up well for the Masters considering driving accuracy is a weakness. Cons: Hard to find one.
- Rory McIlroy - Pros: Can dominate a tournament when he's in top form. Cons: He's not in top form and has never cracked the top five at ANGC. Aside: Rain will help him because it will hurt shorter players.
- J.B. Holmes - Pros: Win last week, runner-up at Doral and length are all big pluses. Cons: Only Masters was a 25th in 2008. Not much experience and a long layoff in between.
- Adam Scott - Pros: Course history, Cons: Uncertain about impact of putter change.
- Dustin Johnson - Pros: On fire in 2015 and a bomber. Cons: Never played ANGC all that well. No top 10s in five trips.
- Matt Kuchar - Pros: Course history - three consecutive top 10s. Cons: Current form and stats relative to others.
- Lee Westwood
- Ryan Moore
- Ryan Palmer
- Paul Casey
- Sergio Garcia
- Ian Poulter
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Phil Mickelson
- Bill Haas
- Russell Henley
- Rickie Fowler
- Patrick Reed
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Tiger Woods
- Brandt Snedeker
- Hunter Mahan
- Billy Horschel
- Brooks Koepka
- Keegan Bradley
- Jim Furyk
This is always a tough call, but especially so this week. It's very hard to keep Jordan Spieth on the bench given his current form and course history. That said, I'm going to do it.
I'm starting Jason Day.
One final note for those that follow my Yahoo! picks on Rotoworld. It's possible that I will make a late change or two as the weather forecast comes more into focus. If I do, I will announce it on Twitter @RyanGolfBlogger.
Best of luck to all!