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Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Shell Houston Open - One-and-Done

The Shell Houston Open is the last call before the Masters. With the GC of Houston being a pretty long track with four par 5s, we are tapping a bomber as our OAD pick for the week.

Rafa Cabrera Bello is the play this week. He finished fourth here a year ago and hasn't missed a cut since THE PLAYERS last year.

Let's hope for the best!

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Puerto Rico Open - One-and-Done

The Puerto Rico Open kicks off opposite the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play on Thursday morning. That means it's time to select a one-and-done for the tournament.

I have a strategy I've long held to with opposite-field events. That is, don't overthink it. It's generally a pretty weak field. After all, if it weren't these guys would be in the WGC. Knowing that, it's a dart throw.

I tend to throw my darts at either young and promising pros looking for their first win, or veterans that are among the class of the field.

I'm taking a mix of both this week with Graham DeLaet.

Best of luck to all!

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

The WGC-Dell Match Play is set to kick off in Austin, Texas. For one-and-done gamers, this week is always a bit tricky.

The introduction of pool play prevents the bow out after one round, and allows a player a chance to come back from a loss to still advance to the 16-man bracket. Given the fickle nature of match play in general, I've usually used this as an opportunity to take a flier on a non-member of the PGA TOUR. In fact, if I hadn't already played Tyrell Hatton in Mexico a few weeks ago, I would be tempted to lean on him.

I would also be tempted to cast a vote Patrick Reed's way, but he's off the board from Kapalua.

After giving the brackets a look, and understanding potential matchups, I've decided to roll the dice with Phil Mickelson. He's getting to the point in his career where he's not a no-brainer play anywhere, but he also offers quite a bit of upside many places. He won a couple of matches here last year, so he offers the possibility of a big week.

While I might like a Dustin Johnson or Jason Day's chances to win a little more, I tend to shy away from elite OAD options in match play because they could run into a buzz saw one day and be out. In stroke play, they have four days to separate themselves instead of 18 holes or less.

Whatever your strategy, best of luck to all.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Arnold Palmer Invitational - One-and-Done

The Arnold Palmer Invitational kicks off in less than 12 hours, and it's time to dub this week's one-and-done selection.

Sometimes there is an obvious answer when considering the OAD format. Sometimes it's complicated. I've found the trick is to recognize when an answer is obvious, and then not to overthink it.

This is one of those week's where the answer is obvious. It is Henrik Stenson. He's done everything except win at Bay Hill over the last few years, including a runner-up finish. He's fresh off a top 10 last week at the Copperhead Course, and has played at a consistently high level for a while.

Some might argue that it's worth holding out on the Swede for a major or WGC. Perhaps, but why? I get that the purses are bigger, but I also get that Stenson is over 40 now. Who's to say the injury bug doesn't bite him? Ask guys who held off on Rory two years ago how that worked out, and he's in his prime.

Play Stenson.

There are no guarantees, but if he doesn't score you a top five it's on him. Not you.

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Valspar Championship - One-and-Done

The Valspar Championship is just around the corner, and I've found a past champion that slides in nicely to this week's one-and-done.

Gary Woodland picked up his first PGA TOUR victory here back in 2011 before adding another top 10 in 2014. His course history matches nicely with what has been a great 2016-17 campaign. In a season where chalk is rewarded, he represents a pretty chalky option on the Copperhead Course.

Bombs away!

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

WGC-Mexico Championship- One-and-Done

If you read my Rotoworld preview / power ranking on Monday, you realize that a tournament like the WGC-Mexico Championship with a brand new venue is not my favorite from a gaming perspective. While the riches of a WGC purse typically beg the burning of a star player, this is a week I'm taking a bit of a flier for several reasons.

First is the unfamiliar course. Second is that, as long as my flier doesn't withdraw, he's going to net me something.

To me, this convergence of facts screams for a European player that doesn't play a full U.S. schedule. I narrowed my focus to Martin Kaymer and Tyrrell Hatton before settling on Hatton. The Englishman is fresh off a T4 in The Honda Classic last week and also shared third in Dubai in his start before that.

Best of luck to all!